Political Prediction Markets: GOP nomination not guaranteed for Trump
With the bulk of the primary contests completed for the 2016 Presidential election, we still see continued disparity between the state of the Democratic and Republican party nominations. The two parties have had markedly different market movement since last summer; today, the Democratic nomination for Hillary Clinton is largely secured, but the same cannot be said for Donald Trump.
CNN's Political Prediction Market, administered by a company called Pivit, is game that factors polls and other elements and invites users to predict where the election will go. The markets change as the public weighs in on the increasing or decreasing chance that a candidate or party wins or loses an election. It should not be confused as a survey from real voters.
Here's a look at both markets, and a deeper dive of the impact on an unsettled GOP nomination across the other Political Prediction Markets.
The Democratic nomination
Hillary Clinton is at 97% odds to win her party's nomination. Though Bernie Sanders mounted a stronger-than-anticipated challenge to Hillary Clinton, and logged some key primary wins, the former secretary of state has consistently held a lead over the Vermont senator in the nomination market.
Sanders' wins in Michigan and a handful of the early March contests brought Clinton down to 83% odds earlier this month, but she has since rebounded to her all-time high of 97%.
With a 900-plus delegate lead over Sanders, Clinton's path to the nomination is clear. We do not anticipate further market volatility with upcoming primaries in March and April.
The Republican nomination
Donald Trump's odds to win the GOP nomination are currently at 75%, with his remaining competitors far behind: Ted Cruz has 22% odds, John Kasich just 3%. And though Trump's lead should suggest a somewhat stable path to the nomination, the markets do not concur.
Delegate Math: Trump has a 250-plus delegate lead over Ted Cruz and a much better path to the 1,237 delegate threshold to win the nomination. However, all is not lost for the Texas senator. Cruz still has the potential to derail Trump by beating him in some of the remaining primary contests, which would deny Trump from reaching 1,237.
Trump would then be required to solicit unbound delegates going into the Republican National Convention in Cleveland in July to reach 1,237. There are many unbound delegates that could either help or hurt Trump. One example is Pennsylvania, which sends 54 unbound delegates to the RNC. Trump has performed well in the Rust Belt states, where he has support from blue collar, white voters. On the negative side for Trump, you have Marco Rubio's unbound voters, who are unlikely to align with the business mogul.
Convention Chaos: The Political Prediction Market for the GOP convention currently sits at 55% odds that the Republican party does not nominate a candidate with the first vote. The crowd is unsure of Trump's chances, as the chorus of establishment Republicans calling for a contested convention grows louder. Trump will have six weeks from the end of the primary season (June 7) to lock down the delegates he needs; however, if Cruz is able to close the delegate gap, the stage will be set for a battle royale in Cleveland.
What's more, all of this uncertainty has a ripple effect across a slate of other Prediction Markets:
- GOP contested convention: As previously mentioned, the contested convention market has seen great volatility in just the past few weeks. Odds of no nominee by the first vote is currently on the rebound, up to 55% odds. That market reached its current high just before polls closed on March 15 (aka Super Tuesday 3), where odds peaked at 75%.
- Presidential winning party: The Democrats are at a market high of 73% odds to be the winning party in the 2016 presidential election. The odds in favor of a Democratic win have been on a steady climb the past month, as the Republicans saw Trump and Cruz splitting wins among the primaries.
- Next U.S. president: Clinton is at an all-time high of 71% odds to be the next U.S. president, as her path to the nomination is secured and the Republicans prepare for a brokered convention. Trump is in second place in this market with 21%, but as the chart below shows, he has not come close to Clinton's market lead.
- Senate majority: The state of the Republican party is impacting markets beyond the Presidential contest, too. In the market for Republicans to maintain majority in the Senate, odds are down to 64% (from a high of 88%) and continue to decline. This echoes Establishment Republicans' worst fears that Trump atop the party ticket would hurt down ticket races. The Democrats are seeing market gains, now at 36% odds to regain their majority in the upper chamber.
- Supreme Court nominee: Market impacts even reach the third branch of the federal government, and the odds of a Supreme Court justice being seated before the end of President Barack Obama's second term. Though the Senate is still insistent it will not hold hearings for nominee Merrick Garland, the crowd is increasingly confident that a justice will be confirmed and installed in the high court before Obama's second term wraps. Odds are now at 52%, with a steady increase in odds occurring once Obama announced Garland as his nominee for late Justice Antonin Scalia's seat.
With just shy of four months to the Democratic and Republican conventions, we have two very different stories unfolding for Clinton and Trump. As the GOP faces growing unrest among its ranks, the battle for the Republican nomination is far from settled.
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